Population studies of very long duration, close to the extinction of the examined cohorts, allow to estimate the life-time incidence of cardiovascular diseases and of life expectancy and survival. The idea to produce a predictive tool for the long-term risk of cardiovascular diseases and duration of survival as a function of recognized risk factors was made during the SISA Summer Course 2013 and hasoriginated the construction of an interactive software named RICALS (Long-Term Cardiovascular Riskand Survival). The analysis was based on the data of the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Studyof Cardiovascular Diseases, including 1712 men aged 40-59 years at entry and followed-up for 50 years. The software estimates: 1) incidence of major cardiovascular events up to the age of 90 years; 2) the duration of survival within 50 years; 3) the probability of survival within the age of 81 years, roughly corresponding to the present expectancy of life of middle aged men in Italy. The estimates use multivariate models including, as predictors, 21 risk factors associated with the various end-points. There is a large proportion of cardiovascular diseases of atherosclerotic-hypertensive nature(42%) in total mortality within the age of 81 years and within the 50 years of follow-up. When evaluating theestimated risks, there are inevitable errors that should be considered. However, this is the consequenceof adopting predictive models and materials that were the best, yet not perfect, complete or exhaustedlyinvestigated, that we could assemble to perform the exercise run to reply to the questions raised.
|Autori:||Menotti, A.;Puddu;P.E.;Lanti, M.P.;Maiani, G.;Catasta, G.;Alberti Fidanza, A.|
|Data di pubblicazione:||2014|
|Titolo:||Stima del rischio cardiovascolare a lungo termine e della sopravvivenza attraverso uno strumento di predizioneper uomini italiani di età media Progetto RICALS (Rischio Cardiovascolare a Lungo termine e Sopravvivenza)|
|Rivista:||GIORNALE ITALIANO DELL'ARTERIOSCLEROSI|
|Appare nelle tipologie:||1.1 Articolo in rivista|